Identifying emerging trends of financial business method patents

Abstract

Financial technology has become an important part of the banking industry in recent times. This study attempts to propose a framework to identify emerging areas and trends using financial business method patents. Based on the abstracts of financial business method patents registered at the United States Patent and Trademark Office, this study first applies latent Dirichlet allocation to identify emerging topics. The probability of the annual occurrence of each topic is adjusted through the exponentially weighted moving average to reflect the importance of the recent probability of topics. Each topic is classified as "hot" or "cold" depending on whether the exponentially weighted moving average of the probabilities exceeds the threshold. We applied survival analysis to the time gap of recurrently becoming hot from a cold status with the associated factor of financial business method patents. The findings suggest that the topic with the short granted period and high forward citation is likely to become hot. In addition, the topic that is aged and specific in narrow areas is likely to continuously change into the hot or cold status. The approach proposed in this study contributes toward understanding topic emergence in the financial area and pursuing sustainable development.