The Nature of Chance and Probability

Abstract

The theory of probabilities is at bottom nothing but common sense reduced to calculus; it enables us to appreciate with exactness that which accurate minds feel with a sort of instinct for which ofttimes they are unable to account ... It teaches us to avoid the illusions which often mislead us; ... there is no science more worthy of our contemplations nor a more useful one for admission to our system of public education. (Laplace, 198611 825, pp. 206-207) .