Development of a Nomogram Based on 3D CT Radiomics Signature to Predict the Mutation Status of EGFR Molecular Subtypes in Lung Adenocarcinoma: A Multicenter Study

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to noninvasively predict the mutation status of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) molecular subtype in lung adenocarcinoma based on CT radiomics features. Methods: In total, 728 patients with lung adenocarcinoma were included, and divided into three groups according to EGFR mutation subtypes. 1727 radiomics features were extracted from the three-dimensional images of each patient. Wilcoxon test, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and multiple logistic regression were used for feature selection. ROC curve was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Nomogram was constructed by combining radiomics features and clinical risk factors. Calibration curve was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model. Decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical applicability of the model. Results: There were three, two, and one clinical factor and fourteen, thirteen, and four radiomics features, respectively, which were significantly related to each EGFR molecular subtype. Compared with the clinical and radiomics models, the combined model had the highest predictive performance in predicting EGFR molecular subtypes [Del-19 mutation vs. wild-type, AUC=0.838 (95% CI, 0.799-0.877); L858R mutation vs. wild-type, AUC=0.855 (95% CI, 0.817-0.894); and Del-19 mutation vs. L858R mutation, AUC=0.906 (95% CI, 0.869-0.943), respectively], and it has a stable performance in the validation set [AUC was 0.813 (95% CI, 0.740-0.886), 0.852 (95% CI, 0.790-0.913), and 0.875 (95% CI, 0.781-0.929), respectively]. Conclusion: Our combined model showed good performance in predicting EGFR molecular subtypes in patients with lung adenocarcinoma. This model can be applied to patients with lung adenocarcinoma.