Initial Management of COVID-19 Outbreak in Mexico

Abstract

This paper analyzes the initial stage of the pandemic COVID-19 in Mexico. The objective is to test whether the contagion risk perception and the authorities' initial prevention messages influenced the COVID-19 deaths. We estimate longitudinal elasticities of deaths to confirmed COVID-19 cases by accounting for measurement error and endogeneity issues. We find that confirmed cases and poverty levels are endogenous. The limitation arises because of the underreported COVID-19 deaths. Our contribution is to identify an association with the individual and political risk perception to the number of COVID-19 deaths. The results show that municipalities with more confirmed cases aware of being in contact with another person affected by COVID-19 have fewer deaths. However, emergency management, federal and state, had weak effects of reducing the lethality rate. We infer that better individual risk awareness is an essential factor in reducing the number of deaths from COVID-19. JEL Classification: C23, H12, H75, I10, O54.