Air Quality in Changing Climate: Implications for Health Impacts

Abstract

Poor air quality is a leading risk factor for global disease. Two major pollutants – fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and surface ozone – are also linked to climate change. A unified framework to quantify the morbidity and mortality burden from air pollution exposure was developed in Global Burden of Disease Study. 1500 and 2200 premature deaths from ozone and ambient PM2.5 exposure can be attributed to past climate change (from pre-industrial era to present day). For the future, air pollution exposure can be quantified by four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios in a modelling framework. In addition to the role of climate change in modulating air quality in future, the changes in socio-economic and demographic condition of the future population are also expected to determine the burden due to air pollution. These may be quantified using the demographic and socioeconomic drivers used in formulating the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Combining the SSP and RCP scenarios in a scenario matrix framework would lead to the estimate of premature mortality burden for the future within an uncertainty range that can drive the policymakers to exercise adequate mitigation measures, which are expected to facilitate a healthier and climate secure society in future.