Rational Cost-Benefit Analysis for Optimizing Future Energy Resources

Abstract

Securing reliable energy resources is, ultimately, a matter of securing the survival of humanity. In other words, the indefinite prolongation of human activities, all of which require energy, requires sustainable energy resources. The laws of thermodynamics already place some constraints on what is achievable in this respect, but fortunately the Earth is an open system and can afford a certain profligacy. This situation is analysed in this paper to a suffcient level of detail. Nevertheless, such knowledge only gives very general prescriptions for energy policy matters. What is needed is a universal methodology for deciding what resources are affordable. Since the provision of such resources has to compete against other demands, some of which might be less indispensable in the long-term but more urgent, general affordability has to be measured against the actual benefits. The previously developed judgment (J)-value, designed to achieve regulatory consensus on health and safety expenditure, is adapted for this purpose. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the J-value for assessing possible energy supply options. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013.