Economic perceptions and vote choice: Disentangling the endogeneity

Abstract

Much previous research shows that variation in vote choice closely follows variation in economic perceptions over time. A number of scholars argue that the pattern is rooted in cross-sectional effects and have found apparent evidence of such effects. However, most of these studies do not take into account the possibility that economic perceptions are themselves structured by vote choice, which poses potentially serious implications. We begin to address this endogeneity, focusing specifically on Lewis-Beck's (1988) analysis of economic voting. The results suggest that the cross-sectional effects of the economy on vote choice have been substantially overstated.