An objective forecasting model for the daily outbreak of forest fires based on meteorological considerations

Abstract

Daily fire risk (DFR) is a forecasting index defined on the basis of two meteorological parameters. A model for estimating the outbreak of fires is presented. On the basis of an autoregressive process, AR(2), it is possible to obtain the predicted number of fires (PNF) during a day d as PNF(d)=F[TD(d), RNF(d-1), RNF(d-2)], where TD(d) is the type day according to the categorization established on the basis of e and D (deduced from rawinsoundings at 0000 UTC) and RNF(d-1) and RNF(d-2) are the numbers of fires registered over the area during two previous days. In contrast to other papers in the literature, all fires are considered. No limitations are placed on the burned area or other measures of fire activity. Several statistical computations confirm the validity of this model. -from Authors