Mobility restrictions and the control of covid-19

Abstract

A recent study on the impact of mobility controls on the final size of epidemics by Espinoza, Castillo-Chavez, and Perrings (2020) found that mobility restrictions between areas experiencing different levels of disease risk and with different public health infrastructures do not always reduce the final epidemic size. Indeed, restrictions on the mobility of people from high-risk to low-risk areas can increase, not reduce, the total number of infections. Since the first response of many countries to the COVID-19 pandemic was to implement mobility restrictions, it is worth bearing in mind the implications of the Espinoza result when considering the effectiveness of such restrictions.