Identifying the shift in global wildfire weather conditions over the past four decades: an analysis based on change-points and long-term trends

Abstract

Most of studies on change-point at a regional or global scale have only examined a single hydrometeorological variable and have been unable to identify any underlying explanations. In this study, we identified change-points and long-term trends of six wildfire-related variables and attempted to explain the cause of change-point from atmospheric–oceanic indices. As a result, we discovered that the main change-point dates for the precipitation, temperature, and drought codes, as well as the duff moisture code, fine fuel moisture code, and fire weather index, were 1995–2000 and 2000–2005, respectively. Furthermore, the relationship between the change-point of six variables and atmospheric–oceanic indices was discussed through the correlation coefficient. For example, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was found to dominate the precipitation in West Africa. In addition, we divided the globe into eight homogenous wildfire weather zones based on the change-point dates and long-term trends of the six variables.