Effects of Climate Change on Mountain Ecosystems in the Carabaya Mountain Range-Peru

Abstract

Understanding how climate change (CC) would affect mountain ecosystems is key for planning and managing the territory in the Andes. Holdridge's life zones (HLZ) were used to evaluate the effects of CC on mountain ecosystems in the Carabaya mountain range for a future centered on 2050 and 2070 under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 scenarios. Holdridge's bioclimatic model was used to obtain the reference HLZ (1961-1990) with climatic information from WorldClim after scaling down and validation with observed information. Nine HLZ were identified, with the highest extent being Paramo (41.2%), Humid-Montane Forest (20.3%), and Tundra (14.6%). The HLZ and the ecosystem map of Peru showed a high degree of concordance (Kappa index of 0.83). The ecosystems most affected by CC would be those within the Nival, Tundra, and Paramo HLZ, which would be reduced, under the RCP-8.5 scenario, by-96.1,-92.7, and-33.9% for 2050, and-98.8,-99.2, and-71.7% for 2070, moving to higher altitudes. On the other hand, ecosystems within the Humid-Montane Forest would increase by +86.8% and +131.6% for the RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 scenarios, respectively, displacing Tundra and Paramo.