Develop prediction model to help forecast advanced prostate cancer patients’ prognosis after surgery using neural network

Abstract

Background: The effect of surgery on advanced prostate cancer (PC) is unclear and predictive model for postoperative survival is lacking yet. Methods: We investigate the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, to collect clinical features of advanced PC patients. According to clinical experience, age, race, grade, pathology, T, N, M, stage, size, regional nodes positive, regional nodes examined, surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, history of malignancy, clinical Gleason score (composed of needle core biopsy or transurethral resection of the prostate specimens), pathological Gleason score (composed of prostatectomy specimens) and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) are the potential predictive variables. All samples are divided into train cohort (70% of total, for model training) and test cohort (30% of total, for model validation) by random sampling. We then develop neural network to predict advanced PC patients’ overall. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is used to evaluate model’s performance. Results: 6380 patients, diagnosed with advanced (stage III-IV) prostate cancer and receiving surgery, have been included. The model using all collected clinical features as predictors and based on neural network algorithm performs best, which scores 0.7058 AUC (95% CIs, 0.7021-0.7068) in train cohort and 0.6925 AUC (95% CIs, 0.6906-0.6956) in test cohort. We then package it into a Windows 64-bit software. Conclusion: Patients with advanced prostate cancer may benefit from surgery. In order to forecast their overall survival, we first build a clinical features-based prognostic model. This model is accuracy and may offer some reference on clinical decision making.