Fragilité des États, indicateurs de gouvernance et risque de guerre civile

Abstract

In this paper, the author considers whether low values on governance indicators such as the CPIA index, the World Governance Indicators (WGI), and the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) predict an elevated risk of civil violence in subsequent years. The existence of a bivariate relationship would not be the surprising, as it is well known that governance indicators of all sorts are strongly related to per capita income levels and well documented that civil war is much more common in poor countries. The results show that a country that was judged in one year to have worse governance than expected given its income level has a significantly greater risk of civil war outbreak in the next 5 to 10 years. © De Boeck Université. Tous droits réservés pour tous pays.