Usefulness of an Urban Growth Model in Creating Scenarios for City Resilience Planning: An End-User Perspective

Abstract

Urban growth models are increasingly being used to generate scenarios within city and regional planning support systems (PSS). However, their usefulness in land use planning applications, particularly in city resilience planning, is not fully understood. Thus, we developed a cellular automata model using Metronamica PSS for the Greater Sydney region and assessed its usefulness as perceived by planning and policy practitioners. The study was implemented through a collaborative geodesign workshop where participants (n = 19) were guided to an understanding of the modelling process and to create and validate alternative policy scenarios for 2050 that reflected Business-As-Usual, Bushfire resilience, Flood resilience, and Combined resilience. We conducted two surveys and a SWOT analysis to assess the usefulness of the PSS and its outputs. We found that the PSS created credible scenarios using collaborative inputs from the participants. The PSS had perceived value for informing participants about land use changes in the resilience planning contexts with high flexibility and granularity. The plausibility of the scenario outputs, a usefulness parameter, was readily accepted, but the model’s transparency (another parameter) was seen as potentially inhibiting application in real-world planning. Future research should involve a broader audience, including the local community, in analysing the usefulness of PSS.