Scenarios

Abstract

In order to investigate the effects of Global and Regional Change on water resources and related issues, it is mandatory to develop a targeted, sound, and foresighted environmental assessment at appropriate geographic scales. This assessment must integrate social, technological, environmental, economic, and demographic issues. Scenarios that include expected developments in agriculture, economy, demography, and environment have become a state-of-the-art tool in environmental assessment and management (e.g., Gaiser et al. 2003; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment of UNEP (UNEP 2005); Alcamo 2008). Scenarios are consistent and plausible images of alternative futures that are comprehensive enough to support decision-making. Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but alternative development routes of complex systems. They enhance the information basis for decision-making through identifying the following: (1) the most important driving forces at the national and regional level; (2) sub-regional developments or events that are of national relevance; (3) the most important inter-linkages between national and regional development; and (4) the most important knowledge gaps and unanswered questions, which point to further actions needed. A meaningful scenario analysis must estimate a certain range of plausible developments that will enable decision-makers in public policy or private entities to deduce suitable advice from the results. © 2010 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.