Impact of asymptomatic plasmodium falciparum infection on the risk of subsequent matic malaria in a longitudinal cohort in kenya

Abstract

Background: Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infections are common in sub-Saharan Africa, but their effect on subsequent symptomaticity is incompletely understood. Methods: In a 29-month cohort of 268 people in Western Kenya, we investigated the association between asymptomatic P. falciparum and subsequent symptomatic malaria with frailty Cox models. Results: Compared to being uninfected, asymptomatic infections were associated with an increased 1-month likelihood of symptomatic malaria [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR):2.61, 95%CI:2.05–3.33], and this association was modified by sex, with females [aHR:3.71, 95%CI:2.62–5.24] at higher risk for symptomaticity than males [aHR:1.76, 95%CI:1.24–2.50]. This increased symptomatic malaria risk was observed for asymptomatic infections of all densities and in people of all ages. Long-term risk was attenuated but still present in children under 5 [29-month aHR:1.38, 95%CI:1.05–1.81]. Conclusions: In this high-transmission setting, asymptomatic P. falciparum can be quickly followed by symptoms and may be targeted to reduce the incidence of symptomatic illness.