Impact of climate change on tropical fruit production systems and its mitigation strategies

Abstract

Scientists are almost of unanimous opinion that tropics will be the frst and most to suffer due to climate change even though the magnitude of projected change as well as past climate trend is moderate as compared to other part of the world. Reasons are though complex, include poor economic conditions of majority of population, higher dependence on natural resources and ecosystem service and relatively narrow temperature ranges. Projection of climate change for tropics indicates rise in temperature of 0.4–1 °C, 0.8–3.2 °C and 1.2–6 °C by the 2020, 2050 and 2100 respectively as compared to base line period (1961–1990). Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is likely to reach 550–800 ppm from the present level of 400 ppm by the end of this century. The change associated with climate has never been smooth and likely to be expressed in terms of increased uncertainties and extremities of weather. Number of heat waves witnessed during last 25 years (1990– 2015) in tropics has exceeded as compared to preceding 70 years. Similarly the number of extreme rainfall events as well as drought has also increased in recent past. These changes are likely to impact natural resources, societies and their interdependence. Fruit production being one of the important activities in tropical regions has been largely ignored from the systematic impact analysis of climate change and adaptation studies. Tropical fruits are attuned to the prevailing weather conditions marked by high temperature. There are delineated and defnite ranges of temperature at different phenophases for optimum production of different fruits. Any deviation from the optimum is likely to affect production and quality drastically. The complex interaction of altered temperatures, corresponding phenophases of different fruits, relative suitability of species and cultivars, elevated CO 2 reduced water availability, pollinators, pest and disease and management practices have demonstrated impact and thus will largely determine the tropical fruit production. Tropical fruits where production is presently limited by high temperature are likely to suffer most and probably have to shift to new areas. Some tropical fruits growing in elevated/fringe.