Spatial Distribution Modeling of Odonata in the New Aquitaine Region (France): A Tool to Target Refuge Areas Under Climate Change

Abstract

Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) are good indicators of climate change effects due to their fast response to climatic variables such as temperature, humidity and amount of rainfall. This study aims to investigate the effect of three scenario of climate change at a regional scale (New Aquitaine region, France) on 59 odonata species distribution using species distribution modeling methods. Those results allow to identify species that will be the most impacted by climate change but also to evaluate changes in odonata diversity across the study area, through the calculation of diversity indices for each climate scenario. 24–33% of the species are predicted loss between 75 and 100% of suitable habitat by 2100 under two scenarios. Predicted distribution map can be use by managers, and stakeholders to target areas to be protect in priority. Different approaches can be pursued: protections of areas that are suitable or will be suitable in the future for rare species and/or target areas that will be suitable for high number of species leading to a higher diversity. By protecting wetland suitable for diverse odonata species, other wetland affiliated species such as amphibians, birds, and plants might benefits from those actions.