Projected Change—River Flow and Urban Drainage

Abstract

Hydrological extremes, largely driven by precipitation, are projected to become more intense within the North Sea region. Quantifying future changes in hydrology is difficult, mainly due to the high uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and climate model output. Nevertheless, models suggest that peak river flow in many rivers may be up to 30 % higher by 2100, and in some rivers even higher. The greatest increases are projected for the northern basins. Earlier spring floods are projected for snow-dominated catchments but this does not always cause an increase in peak flows; peak flows may decrease if higher spring temperatures lead to reduced snow storage. An increase in rain-fed flow in winter and autumn may change the seasonality of peak flows and floods. The proximity of a river basin to the ocean is also important; the closer the two the greater the potential damping of any climate change effect. In urban catchments, the specific characteristics of the drainage system will dictate whether the net result of the climate change effect, for example the projected increase in short-duration rainfall extremes, is to damp or amplify the impact of this change in precipitation. The response in terms of sewer flood and overflow frequencies and volumes is highly non-linear. The combined impact of climate change and increased urbanisation in some parts of the North Sea region could result in as much as a four-fold increase in sewer overflow volumes.