Modelling the socio-ecological system dynamics of rubber agroforests to design reward mechanisms for agro-biodiversity conservation

Abstract

An agent-based modelling approach (LB-LUDAS model) was applied to simulate and visualize the temporal and spatial scale effects of the Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) scheme on the trade-offs between goods and services in the rubber agroforest landscapes in Jambi Province, (Sumatra) Indonesia. The PES scheme under investigation is a form of eco-certification of biodiversity-friendly rubber agroforests, as an economic incentive to keep rubber agroforests from conversion into monoculture plantations. Within the model, we integrated the concept of PES conditionality, where biodiversity performance measures were set for household agents to qualify for incentives. On the other hand, species richness, carbon sequestration, and natural succession sub-models are imbedded in the landscape agents. During the simulation, we looked at three different price scenarios to determine how they will affect the land-use decision of the agents and the ecosystem services supply. The main results showed that PES for rubber agroforests could offer synergies among carbon emission reduction, biodiversity and livelihoods when compared to the existing land-use practices. At the same time, the scheme could reduce the trade-offs resulting from possible land-use/cover change. The results of the simulation were validated using a role-playing game testing responses to external agents.