PERAMALAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN YANG BERKUNJUNG KE OBJEK WISATA DI JAWA TENGAH MENGGUNAKAN VARIASI KALENDER ISLAM REGARIMA

Abstract

Tourism is one of the most strategically controlled areas that have been developed.The number of tourists in Central Java is constantly rising in the month of Eid Al-Fitr caused by holiday and mudik to hometown. The shift of the Eid Al-Fitr month on the data will form a seasonal pattern with an unequal period, then called moving holiday effect.One of the calendar variationsare often used to remove the moving holiday effect is RegARIMA model. RegARIMA is a combination of the linier regression and ARIMA, which a weight was used as a regression variable and error of regression model was used a variable in the ARIMA process. Based on the analysis carried out on the monthly number of tourists visiting tourist attractions in Central Java data for the period January 2011 to December 2017, the RegARIMA (1,1,1) (0,0,1)12model as the best model because it have the lowest AIC value than other model. The forecasting results in 2018 shows an increase on number of tourists data on June 2018 which coincided with the Eid Al-Fitr holiday on 15 June 2018. sMAPE value is 23,298%.Keyowrds:Time Series, Tourists, RegARIMA, Moving Holiday Effect