Dynamics of Individual Investments in Heating Technology

Abstract

The transition of heat provision in the urban building stock towards climate neutral sources poses a major challenge to German cities. The underlying actor structure is complex and interlinked. Municipalities set regulatory boundary conditions and decide on infrastructure investments like district heating networks. Necessary investments on the premises of house owners are not only inhibited by unavailability of capital but also by a lack of technical knowledge and ultimately by capacity shortages of installation companies. In the paper, we outline the agent-based model being developed in the course of a new research project aiming to support local heat transitions by socio-technical modelling and simulation. We aim to represent the investment dynamics evolving from interactions of building owners with a broader set of stakeholders, namely energy consultants whose knowledge and thus recommendations shape the set of investment options, and craftspeople such as plumbers whose experience has an impact of building owners’ decisions. We outline the integration of the agent-based model with a model of the local energy system to account for feedbacks between the heating infrastructure and investment decisions of building owners. Furthermore, we discuss our approach to auto-parameterise intervention measures to achieve required rates of investments.