A Novel approach to informing the future land force: Incorporating design thinking and concept, development and exploration methods

Abstract

The future is complex and uncertain, with emerging technologies that present significant potential advantages as well as threats. In the face of such rapid change, the land force must be able to continue to operate now and be able to adapt and innovate to achieve success in the future. So how can the ADF evolve and both incorporate incremental improvements and embrace radical step change and divestment in order to invest in new concepts that exploit emerging technology? This paper describes DST Group and Army Headquarters' collaboration to design an aspirational Battle Group (BG) that could achieve success within the 2035 Australian Primary Operating Environment (2035 POE). Key aspects of the 2035 POE are pervasive unmanned aerial systems and sensors more generally, increased lethality and availability of precision munitions, increased capabilities to counter fires, increased availability of electronic warfare effects, and advances in networking leading to highly collaborative effects. Additionally it was assumed that autonomy and AI advances would enable reduction in cognitive burden alleviating the need for tele-operation or remote control, enabling greater numbers of Robotic and Autonomous Systems (RAS) resident within the 2035 BG without reducing the number of combat personnel. Significantly, potential adversary use of these same capabilities would not be constrained by the same legal and ethical constraints as the ADF. For DST Group, this represents a change in focus to designing concepts and developing force options in addition to assessing them to inform capability decisions. As a result we developed the Design, Concept Development and Exploration (DCDE) approach which took aspects of the NATO Concept Development and Experimentation process, US Army Campaign of Learning approach and UK Disruptive Technology Assessment Games and combined them with Design Thinking methods. A key difference of the DCDE approach is the use of wargaming as an immersive method for concept exploration to exploit emerging technology. The DCDE approach included four key phases; align, design, analyse and refine, which were iterated with the refine phase running concurrently through the entire campaign. This is similar to the Design Thinking philosophy of understand, define, ideate, prototype and test. Flexibility and agility was built into the DCDE approach through the use of multiple methods for analysis with each activity designed to incorporate and respond to findings of preceding activities. The prototype 2035 BG designed using the DCDE approach, balanced novel concepts with current constraints of legacy systems and structures. The 2035 BG gained significant advantage beyond the current 2028 Integrated Investment Program realised (funded) force through use of numerous RAS enabled systems to provide enhanced ISR, EW and fires down to the lowest possible level. 2035 BG concepts included: Use of enhanced networking and agile C2 to achieve both survivability and lethality effects at the lowest levels, use of integrated Counter Rocket Artillery and Missile Systems and Counter Unmanned Air Systems; offensive and defensive EW including deception and decoy tactics. The emerging technology areas and corresponding concepts identified for further investigation are consistent with findings from other studies but have also been contextualised for the 2035 POE. The DCDE approach represents a novel approach to design a force combining iterative Design Thinking methods and wargaming to provide immersion in context for exploration before detailed testing and assessment. Key benefits of the DCDE approach are flexibility, efficiency, responsiveness and a closer alignment with decision maker needs. The DCDE approach applies a range of methods, models and tools to build an evidence base for modernisation and investment decisions.