Uncertainty and Future Planning: The Use of Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation Planning and Decision

Abstract

This chapter reports on lessons on the use of scenario planning for informing long-term climate change adaptation planning and decision. Lessons are extracted based on the development and application of exploratory scenarios (multiple plausible futures) involving two different levels of stakeholder engagement in Australia: (i) a regional/institutional and (ii) a community level. Lessons from the regional/institutional level focus on the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI) involving a multi-sectoral investigation of climate change adaptation in the South East Queensland (SEQ) region, comprising the sectors of urban and regional planning, coastal management, physical infrastructure, emergency management, and human health. Lessons from the community level are drawn from the recovery phase of the Cardwell town in far north Queensland in the aftermath of category five Tropical Cyclone Yasi. Findings indicate that at the regional/institutional level exploratory scenarios are useful to support the integration of different stakeholders ’ and sectors’ perspectives concerning climate change adaptation. In particular, they provide opportunities for improved understanding of sector-specific as well as cross-sectoral issues to be addressed. At the community level, exploratory scenarios assist in the scoping of specific and tailored adaptation options. However, a limited number of options accounts for multi-dimensional challenges and longer-term future planning related to climate change impacts.