The problem of risk assessment: Can better crime prognoses reduce recidivism?

Abstract

Every society has to face the situation that there are a very small group of people who do not respect elementary rules of human behavior and who commit very serious violent crimes again and again. But how do we know who belongs to this group and who does not? To predict the probability of people re-offending is one of the most challenging tasks for experts and has become an important part of criminal policy in societies aiming to completely abolish crime. Referring to several studies on recidivism, including an investigation accomplished by the Ruhr-Universität Bochum's Department of Criminology, the limitations of crime prognosis and unjustified promises of crime forecast procedures are pointed out in this chapter. Despite all recent efforts to improve crime prediction, we are unable to predict human behavior precisely. As a result, other means than unlimited imprisonment of people regarded to be very dangerous by psychiatric or psychological experts are recommended to manage the problem of crime prevention in a way that considers both human rights' aspects as well as public needs.