Flood Frequency Analysis Using Gumbel's Distribution Method: A Case Study of Lower Mahi Basin, India

Abstract

Estimation of Peak Flood Discharge for a desired return period is a prerequisite for planning, design and management of hydraulic structures like barrages, dams, spillways, bridges etc. This paper presents results of a study carried out at analyzing the frequency of Lower Mahi River floods using the Gumbel's distribution method which is one of the probability distribution methods used to model stream flows. The method was used to model the annual maximum discharge of the river from Wanakbori Weir (regulating structure in the river) for a period of 30 years (1980 to 2009). From the regression analysis equation, R 2 gives a value of 0.964 which shows that Gumbel's distribution is suitable for predicting the expected flow in the river. Using the same method the peak flood values for different Return Periods were also obtained, which can prove useful for the storm management in the area.