A novel hybrid SEIQR model incorporating the effect of quarantine and lockdown regulations for COVID-19

Abstract

Mitigating the devastating effect of COVID-19 is necessary to control the infectivity and mortality rates. Hence, several strategies such as quarantine of exposed and infected individuals and restricting movement through lockdown of geographical regions have been implemented in most countries. On the other hand, standard SEIR based mathematical models have been developed to understand the disease dynamics of COVID-19, and the proper inclusion of these restrictions is the rate-limiting step for the success of these models. In this work, we have developed a hybrid Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Quarantined-Removed (SEIQR) model to explore the influence of quarantine and lockdown on disease propagation dynamics. The model is multi-compartmental, and it considers everyday variations in lockdown regulations, testing rate and quarantine individuals. Our model predicts a considerable difference in reported and actual recovered and deceased cases in qualitative agreement with recent reports.