Holy mackerel! an exploratory agent-based model of illicit fishing and forced labor

Abstract

This paper introduces an agent-based model to explore the existence of positive feedback loops related to illegal, unregulated, unreported (IUU) fishing; the use of forced labor; and the depletion of fish populations due to commercial fishing. The author hypothesizes the use of forced labor adversely impacts economic activity, provides incentive for illicit activity, and depletes the population of fish. Left unchecked, such a dynamic may lead to irreversible environmental impacts, exacerbate international tensions, and yield significant economic losses. The lack of reliable data on human trafficking and global fisheries makes statistical analysis extremely difficult. This model serves to consolidate several behavioral and impact assumptions into a single exploratory model in order to test these assumptions and establish a proof of concept to guide future research.