Modeling Urban Heatwave Risk in Adelaide, South Australia

Abstract

Summer heatwaves are increasingly a feature of a warming global climate and their deleterious effects are most pronounced in urban centres, where populations are concentrated. Large areas of urban green space can have a significant ameliorating effect on high temperatures along with other amenity benefits and are one strategy for improving urban resilience to heatwave hazards. We used a range of spatially explicit climatic and socio-economic data to model hazard, vulnerability and exposure associated with an individual severe heatwave event in Adelaide, South Australia in 2014. Three greening scenarios for the city were then used to model the effects of heatwave risk mitigation on economic valuation and residential location choice under a residential sorting model. We found a greater willingness to pay (WTP), as measured by residential housing prices, by residents in areas with close proximity to green space. Younger age groups, in particular, were more likely to pay for lower temperatures in the urban environment.