Transformative Scenario Planning: Unpacking Theory and Practice

Abstract

Transformative Scenario Planning (TSP) is an underdeveloped approach, which is rarely applied in academic research. Based on review and synthesis, this study has been conducted to lay down a conceptual frame- work for TSP, so that it assists to unpack theoretical and methodological rigor of TSP. Methods: Deploying ‘theory U’, TSP is grounded in five steps: convening, observing, constructing, discovering, and acting. These steps are founded on the three building blocks-a whole system team, a strong container and a rigorous process—that produce four out- puts, like understandings, relationships, intentions, and actions, which culminate in change at different levels. The conceptual framing of TSP is substantiated by the lessons of two case studies. Results: Findings indicate that deliber- ate transformation can occur through generating scenario insights and creating alternative environments. TSP is built on shared visioning, meaningful stakeholders’ engagement, building strong collaboration, effective policy imple- mentation, and encouraging gradual change. Application: TSP is useful for crafting adaptive and transformative policies. Empirical research and analysis is required to formulate a well-accepted theory and methodology for TSP.