Prognostic impact of atrial fibrillation and new risk score of its onset in patients at high risk of heart failure — a report from the CHART-2 study —

Abstract

Background: The prognostic impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) among patients at high risk for heart failure (HF) remains unclear. In addition, there is no risk estimation model for AF development in these patients. Methods and Results: The present study included 5,382 consecutive patients at high risk of HF enrolled in the CHART-2 Study (n=10,219). At enrollment, 1,217 (22.6%) had AF, and were characterized, as compared with non-AF patients, by higher age, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, higher B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level and lower left ventricular ejection fraction. A total of 116 non-AF patients (2.8%) newly developed AF (new AF) during the median 3.1-year follow-up. AF at enrollment was associated with worse prognosis for both all-cause death and HF hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.31, P=0.027 and aHR 1.74, P=0.001, for all-cause death and HF hospitalization, respectively) and new AF was associated with HF hospitalization (aHR 4.54, P<0.001). We developed a risk score with higher age, smoking, pulse pressure, lower eGFR, higher BNP, aortic valvular regurgitation, LV hypertrophy, and left atrial and ventricular dilatation on echocardiography, which effectively stratified the risk of AF development with excellent accuracy (AUC 0.76). Conclusions: These results indicated that AF is associated with worse prognosis in patients at high risk of HF, and our new risk score may be useful to identify patients at high risk for AF onset.