Accurate output forecasting method for various photovoltaic modules considering incident angle and spectral change owing to atmospheric parameters and cloud conditions

Abstract

Because semiconductors absorb wavelengths dependent on the light absorption coefficient, photovoltaic (PV) energy output is affected by the solar spectrum. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the solar spectrum for highly accurate PV output estimation. Bird's model has been used as a general spectral model. However, atmospheric parameters such as aerosol optical depth and precipitable water have a constant value in the model that only applies to clear days. In this study, atmospheric parameters were extracted using the Bird's spectrum model from the measured global spectrum and the seasonal fluctuation of atmospheric parameters was examined. We propose an overcast spectrum model and calculate the all-weather solar spectrum from clear to overcast sky through linear combination. Three types of PV modules (fixed Si, two-axis tracking Si, and fixed InGaP/GaAs/InGaAs triple-junction solar cells) were installed at the University of Miyazaki. The estimated performance ratio (PR), which takes into account incident angle and spectral variations, was consistent with the measured PR. Finally, the energy yield of various PVs installed across Japan was successfully estimated.