Landslide hazard mapping using monte carlo simulation- a case study in taiwan

Abstract

Taiwan's slope disasters resulted from heavy rains happen frequently due to its geographic, weather and topographic conditions. Therefore, the slope disasters in Taiwan cannot be neglected. With the development of GIS, the infinite slope analysis method which uses deterministic concept will confront two major problems when it is used in evaluating landslide susceptibility: first, the various engineering parametrics can't be determined easily. second, the mutual independent between grids will cause the unreal conditions such as the low landslide potential grids surrounded by high ones. This study chooses route Tou-71-from Puli to Ren-Ai as the main research area and typhoon Toraji as the rainfall event of analysis. The study also use the wide-range slope stability analysis software-TRIGRS, and Monte Carlo simulation which considers the uncertainty in parametrics to replace traditional single factor of safety with probability ones. The landslide susceptibility of study area is described by potentially failure probability. © 2008 Science Press Beijing and Springer-Verlag GmbH Berlin Heidelberg Geotechnical Engineering for Disaster Mitigation and Rehabilitation.