ADAPTATIONS ASSESSMENT ON THE IMPACTS OF FLOODING UNDER CURRENT CONDITION AND CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO, CASE STUDY: CENTINI VILLAGE, INDONESIA

Abstract

Reducing community vulnerability to flooding is increasingly important given predicted intensive flood events in many parts of the world. We built a community vulnerability model to explore the effectiveness of a range of proactive and reactive adaptations to reduce community vulnerability to flood. The model consists of floods, victims, housings, responses, savings, expenditure and income sub models. We explore the robustness of adaptations under current conditions and under a range of future climate change scenarios. We present results of this model for a case study of Centini Village in Lamongan Municipality, Indonesia, which is highly vulnerable to the impacts of annual small-scale and infrequent extreme floods.  We compare 11 proactive adaptations using indicators of victims, damage/losses and recovery process to reflect the level of vulnerability. We find that reforestation and flood infrastructure redevelopment are the most effective proactive adaptations for minimising vulnerability to flood under current condition. Under climate change scenario, the floods are predicted to increase 17% on the average and 5% on the maximum measurements. The increasing floods result reforestation is the only effective adaptations in the future under climate change scenario.