Evidence-based evidence: A practical method for Bayesian analysis of forensic evidence

Abstract

A study by the authors of determining manner of death used a method novel to forensic pathology. This article details the method used. Drawing on the methodology of evidence-based medicine, data was systematically identified and pooled to provide a robust and substantial dataset of probabilities for forensic evidential features of gunshot wounds. This provided source data for a Bayesian analysis to determine the probable manner of death. We suggest the same method can be applied to a wide variety of evidence, meeting the need for strong and reliable data highlighted by R v. T and subsequent debate.