Flood risk in a changing climate: A multilevel approach for risk management

Abstract

Many regions in Europe are vulnerable to the expected increase in the frequency and intensity of climate related hazards, and partly for this reason adaptation to climate change is moving to the forefront of EU and national policy. Yet, little is known about the changing risks of floods and other weather hazards, or about possible adaptation options under these dynamic conditions. Based on a risk modeling approach this chapter presents results on estimating changing flood losses for Hungary, including the Tisza region, which is highly exposed to flooding. We examine two generic options for managing the risks, including investments in risk reduction measures and investments in insurance or other risk-transfer instruments. The analysis distinguishes between different layers of risk (high and low consequence), which provides insights on allocating between risk reduction and risk transfer.