Spatial microsimulation: Developments and potential future directions

Abstract

This paper summarises some of the latest developments in methods to estimate and validate spatial microsimulation models. The paper also attempts to identify where the potential is for new areas of development in spatial microsimulation models, based on the author's reading of the spatial microsimulation landscape in 2018. The methods outlined in this paper are identified as significant developments in the field, and include a number of new methods for calculating or adding indicators to a spatial microsimulation model; as well as new methods of validation and estimating confidence intervals. Potential new areas of research include further development of methods for calculating confidence intervals; work on getting spatial microsimulation into the mainstream of policy analysis; work on linking models to provide input into managing complex problems in society; and work on using big data in spatial microsimulation models.