Growing concern about biodiversity loss underscores the need to quantify and understand temporal change. Here, we review the opportunities presented by biodiversity time series, and address three related issues: (i) recognizing the characteristics of temporal data; (ii) selecting appropriate statistical procedures for analysing temporal data; and (iii) inferring and forecasting biodiversity change. With regard to the first issue, we draw attention to defining characteristics of biodiversity time series-lack of physical boundaries, unidimensionality, autocorrelation and directionality-that inform the choice of analytic methods. Second, we explore methods of quantifying change in biodiversity at different timescales, noting that autocorrelation can be viewed as a feature that sheds light on the underlying structure of temporal change. Finally, we address the transition from inferring to forecasting biodiversity change, highlighting potential pitfalls associated with phase-shifts and novel conditions. © 2012 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.
CITATION STYLE
Dornelas, M., Magurran, A. E., Buckland, S. T., Chao, A., Chazdon, R. L., Colwell, R. K., … Vellend, M. (2013). Quantifying temporal change in biodiversity: Challenges and opportunities. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. Royal Society. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2012.1931
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