Seismic hazard assessment of Koyna region, Peninsular India: using geospatial approach

Abstract

Background: Earthquake-prone regions from the stable continental regions (like Peninsular India) warrant total seismic hazard estimation from possible sources — reservoir induced or tectonic. The Koyna region falls in the so-called stable continental region, though previously considered as aseismic because of its location in the Peninsular India, which was argued to be the continental Shield region; however, it is seismically active ever since the December 10, 1967, strong earthquake (M6.5) which killed around 200 people and damaged properties. The event was initially attributed to reservoir-induced seismicity. The present study aims at mapping the spatial distribution of hazard intensity in terms of peak ground acceleration and damage potential expressed as Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) levels owing to the scenario earthquakes (M4.0 to M6.9) from the linear sources and background seismicity in the Koyna region. For the seismic source model, geospatial integration approach is used. To delineate the source boundaries we perform spatial analysis of seismicity attributes and assigning weights based on the geological information. In addition, spatial buffering of thematic layers of faults and lineaments is applied to truncate the spatial uncertainties. Thematic attribute layers are integrated over the SRTM-DEM-derived geomorphic features and spatial seismicity pattern to define the possible linear seismic source zones. We employ ArcGIS® to perform geospatial analysis and to integrate thematic spatial information finally to prepare the seismic hazard and damage potential zones for the Koyna region. Results: We present the probabilistically estimated seismic hazard and damage potential estimates for the Koyna region. Spatial mapping of the hazard parameters is performed on Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Along with the historical and instrumental earthquake data, we incorporate updated and relocated seismic events from circa 1618 to 2017 covering ~ 400 years period, for analyzing the mean annual rates of seismicity and earthquake recurrence intervals. The anticipated recurrence intervals of earthquakes ~ M5.5 is around 100 ± 10 years. The estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) for 10% probability being exceeded in 50 years (i.e. 500 years of return period) is greater than 21% g is anticipated for the area located (~30 km radius) between the Koyna and Warna Reservoirs. Conclusions: The hazard estimates for the 500 years return period earthquake scenarios (M4.0 to M6.9) are based on the bedrock level estimation. Estimated PGA-values are grouped into three categories that are relatively defined as high, moderate, and low hazard zones, respectively. Slightly damaging intensity (MMI-VII level) expected in 50 years has ~ 40% probability and PGA greater than 21% g for the area which is located between Koyna and Warna Reservoirs, which is identified as high hazard zone.