Global Energy Price Volatility and Agricultural Commodity Prices in Malaysia

Abstract

Few studies have differentiated oil demand shocks from oil supply shocks in the literature that has investigated the impacts of these issues on the prices of agricultural products. This study attempts to investigate this problem by employing a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) technique on Malaysian data from January 1993 to December 2019. We found that the reactions of agricultural commodity prices to the changes in global oil prices largely depend on whether they result from oil demand shocks or oil supply shocks. Global oil demand shocks before the food price crisis (2006–2008) can explain a large share of the changes in prices of agricultural products, while after that period, their capacity to explain these changes becomes much weaker. After the food crisis period, the contribution of the oil supply shock to changes in the prices of agricultural products is higher than that of the oil demand shock. We can conclude that the role of oil supply in the economy in explaining changes in the prices of agricultural commodities is stronger after the food price crisis. This is because Malaysia’s economy, as a net oil exporter, benefits from higher oil prices resulting in higher demand for agricultural products and, consequently, higher prices for agricultural commodities.