A method for analyzing energy-related carbon emissions and the structural changes: A case study of China from 2005 to 2015

Abstract

To systematically analyze energy-related carbon emissions from the perspective of comprehensive energy flow and allocate emissions responsibility, we introduce energy allocation analysis to carbon flow process based on Sankey diagrams. Then, to quantitatively compare different diagrams and evaluate the structural changes of carbon flow, we define changes from three dimensions including total amount change, relative growth rate and occupation ratio change (TRO), propose TRO index. The method is applied to China's case study from 2005 to 2015. We map China's energy-related carbon flow Sankey diagrams with high technical resolution from energy sources, intermediate conversion, end-use devices, passive systems to final services, and conduct TRO index decomposition by stages. The results indicate that in energy sources, the emission share of coal has declined due to energy transition although coal is still the largest contributor to China's energy-related carbon emissions. In passive systems, the factory passive systems are the largest contributors, among them, emission reduction should focus on the steel, non-ferrous and chemical industries; the building passive systems should pay attention to household appliances; the vehicle passive systems should focus on cars. In final services, the demand for structural materials is the strongest driving force for carbon emissions growth.