Energy and economic analyses for supporting early design stages: Introducing uncertainty in simulations

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to highlight the potentialities of a synergic application of energy analysis and economic analysis for supporting design strategies, considering the effects of the territorial location in terms of energy consumptions and prices/market variations. In order to simulate the effects of the specific projects’ potential location on energy and economic input data, uncertainty is introduced as a proxy in the conjoint energy and economic analysis. A two-phases methodology is proposed, considering, first, a massive set of dynamic energy simulations by EnergyPlus of a sample office unit by varying, in this first step of the research, its location and related envelope thermal insulation levels. Minimal U-values are assumed for each simulation according to the local climate zone in accordance to DM 26.06.15, while simulated energy needs for space heating and cooling are analyzed by using a devoted python script. Second, a stochastic Global Cost calculation is proposed, considering the Global Cost (EN 15459:2007) the fundamental of the Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ISO 15686: 2008, Part 5). In this first step of the work, focus is posed at the Global Cost calculation considering solely the running costs component, in stochastic terms. The Probability Analysis solved through the Monte Carlo Method is used to represent the possible effects of uncertainty on the “energy-economic items” definition, affecting the NPVs results. The Italian territory is considered including 7978 Italian Municipalities and the related climate zones.