Top ten hazards to avoid when modeling species distributions: a didactic guide of assumptions, problems, and recommendations

Abstract

Species distribution models, also known as ecological niche models or habitat suitability models, have become commonplace for addressing fundamental and applied biodiversity questions. Although the field has progressed rapidly regarding theory and implementation, key assumptions are still frequently violated and recommendations inadvertently overlooked. This leads to poor models being published and used in real-world applications. In a structured, didactic treatment, we summarize what in our view constitute the ten most problematic issues, or hazards, negatively affecting implementation of correlative approaches to species distribution modeling (specifically those that model suitability by comparing the environments of a species' occurrence records with those of a background or pseudoabsence sample). For each hazard, we state relevant assumptions, detail problems that arise when violating them, and convey straightforward existing recommendations. We also discuss five major outstanding questions of active current research. We hope this contribution will promote more rigorous implementation of these valuable models and stimulate further advancements.