Longitudinal dropout and evasion rates: A methodology for studying the trajectory of students in higher education

Abstract

With the expansion of the higher education system, dropout and retention have been rediscovered by educational research. In this paper, we critically evaluate the rates used by the Brazilian MEC (Ministry of Education) and TCU (Court of Accounts) to control and follow students' trajectory through universities. Drawing on this critique, alternative indicators are presented to quantify dropout and retention: the longitudinal dropout rate (LDR) and the longitudinal retention rate (LRR). These indicators were tested with data extracted from the academic record of Universidade de Brasília (UnB). The results indicate progressive increase in dropout and reduced retention. These transformations may be related to the process of expansion of the education system itself.