Optimal control of a rumor propagation model with latent period in emergency event

Abstract

Rumor is an important form of social interaction, and its spreading has a significant impact on human lives. In this paper, a rumor propagation model with latent period and varying population is considered, which assumes an ignorant individual first goes through a latent period after infection before becoming a spreader or a stifler. Agents that read the rumor but have not decided to spread it, stay in the latent period. By means of the Lyapunov function and LaSalle’s invariant set theorem, we proved the global asymptotical stable results of the rumor-free equilibrium and the rumor-endemic equilibrium by using the Poincarè-Bendixson property. Then an optimal control problem is formulated, from the perspective of a manager in emergency events, to maximize positive social effects with rumor spreading when the emergency resources are under constraints. Control signals, such as science education and official medial coverage attempt to convert lurkers and spreaders into stiflers. By employing Pontryagin’s maximum principle, the optimal solution is acquired when the emergency response incurs nonlinear costs. Finally, we outline some strategies for managers that can contribute to rumor control in an emergency event.