Exploring detailed urban-rural development under intersecting population growth and food production scenarios: Trajectories for China’s most populous agricultural province to 2030

Abstract

Henan, China, is likely the most populous agricultural province worldwide. It is China’s major grain-producing area, with a continuously increasing population (96 million), which is greater than 93% of countries worldwide. However, this province has been experiencing unprecedented urbanization recently due to national policies and measures, such as a plan to build the capital city of Henan into a national center, resulting in severe conflicts in land use that endanger food security regionally and globally. To facilitate decision-making on this problem, we explored the detailed urban-rural development of Henan by modeling these land-use conflicts. Conventional modeling of a region’s urban-rural development is to navigate trade-offs (a) solely between different land-use types (b) by assuming that each type provides a single service (e.g., croplands produce all the food), and (c) under a polynomial regression-based projection of population. In contrast, we considered both land-use type and intensity, resulting in a detailed land system for Henan. By introducing the concept of land system services (e.g., food production), we established a many-to-many relationship between land system classes and services. These allowed us to carry out the most comprehensive modeling of Henan’s urban-rural development under eighteen combined scenarios of population growth and land-use policies on food production. The modeling results of these scenarios provide a solid basis for making decisions regarding Henan’s urban-rural development. We also revealed the influence mechanism of population growth, land-use policies, and their combinations, highlighting the benefits of securing food production by agricultural intensification rather than merely expanding the area of cropland.