GIS-Based model to predict the development of biodiversity in agrarian habitats as a planning base for different Land-Use scenarios

Abstract

Biodiversity is defined in the political sphere as an important subject of protection and the extinction of species to be listed here should not only be held in acknowledged protected areas, but rather also in areas used agriculturally. The situation in agriculture is currently strongly changing through influencing factors, such as climate change and restructuring in favour of renewable resources. Since this development on the one hand holds the risk of a loss of biodiversity, and on the other redevelopments also offer opportunities, this is indispensable for a wellfounded evaluation to operably forecast the effects of land use change on organisms. Suitable methods for this are currently lacking. These loopholes should be closed by the model worked out here. Based on species collections from earlier studies, autecological organism data from the bibliography, as well as suitable map material, a Geographical Information System will be created which makes it possible to forecast biodiversity in a regional context.