Alternative directions of coal supply to Poland as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war

Abstract

The aim of this article is to provide an overview of other alternative directions of coal supply to Poland following the February 2022 embargo on coal imports from Russia. Due to the dominant role of steam coal in imports to Poland, the authors focused on this type of coal. Analysis of the share of Russian steam coal imported into Poland in domestic consumption and production suggests that this commodity has played a relatively important role in the Polish market. In 2010–2021, between 4.8 and 12.9 million tonnes were imported annually from Russia to Poland, accounting for 8–25% of domestic steam-coal consumption. In 2018–2021, steam coal imported into Poland accounted for 22–29% of the volume of coal shipped by Russia to all EU-27 countries. In order to fill the gap left by Russian coal, this article considers alternative routes of coal supply to Poland, namely from Australia, Indonesia, Colombia, South Africa and the US, and presents the qualitative characteristics of the coal offered by these alternative routes of coal supply and traded on the international market. Between 2010 and 2021, steam-coal-price offers from these countries followed a consistent trend, with the difference between the minimum and maximum offer ranging from USD 5–32/tonne. As the steam coal supply of each of the analyzed routes of supply is fraught with some risk, the authors have also identified in the article those directions that may present some difficulties. It was found that coal offerings from Australia, South Africa, Indonesia and Colombia have low sulphur content (less than 1%), while coals from Australia and South Africa have relatively high ash content (from 12% to nearly 25%). Towards the end, the article also addresses issues related to the transport of coal to Poland and its dispatching within the country. As the analyzed alternative directions of coal imports involve importing this commodity by sea, the authors also analyzed the reloading capacity of Polish seaports and the rail transport fleet.