Modelling time-varying low-temperature-induced mortality rates for pupae of Tuta absoluta (Gelechiidae, Lepidoptera)

Abstract

In a series of laboratory experiments, acclimated pupae of Tuta absoluta were exposed to various constant low temperatures in order to estimate their maximum survival times (Kaplan–Meier, Lt99.99). A Weibull function was fitted to the data points, describing maximum survival time as a function of temperature. In another experiment at −6°C, the progress of mortality increasing with exposure time was identified. These values were fitted by a sigmoidal function converging asymptotically to 100% mortality for very long exposure times. Analysing mortality data from the maximum survival experiment by a generalized linear model showed a significant common slope parameter (p