A preliminary cellular model for secondary lahars and simulation of 2005 case of vascún Valley, Ecuador

Abstract

Lahars represent one of the most destructive natural disasters as number of casualties in the world. Secondary lahars are very complex surface flows, which originate from the mobilization of pyroclastic deposits by exceptional heavy rainfalls. Simulation of secondary lahars could be an important tool for risk management in threatened regions. Multicomponent (macroscopic) Cellular Automata (CA) characterize a methodological approach for modelling large scale (extended for kilometers) complex phenomena, that evolve on the basis of local interactions. A preliminary three dimension CA model was developed and partially applied on a real event: the 2005 secondary lahar of Vascún Valley, Ecuador. Simulations are satisfying, a comparison is performed with the previous successful two dimensions model Titan2D, based on PDE, together with simulation results of the same event.